2035 NDCs so far ‘make no difference’ to global warming outlook

New 2035 climate targets announced by countries ahead of COP30 are not expected to change the global warming outlook, which remains at 2.6°C, according to the Climate Action Tracker (CAT).

The ‘target gap’ between the Paris Agreement goal to limit the global temperature rise to 1.5°C and the impact of current policies is continuing to grow, with new nationally determined contributions (NDCs) for 2035 not expected to impact warming projections.

This is the conclusion of the latest CAT Global Update, which warns that almost none of the 40 governments analysed have updated their 2030 target, nor have they set out the kind of action that would change the warming outlook in their 2035 targets. 

This means the gap to 1.5°C is projected to grow by 2 billion tonnes from 2030 to 2035, up from 29 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2030 to 31 GtCO2e in 2035.

"The world is running out of time to avoid a dangerous overshoot of the 1.5°C limit. Delayed action has already led to higher cumulative emissions, and new evidence suggests the climate system may be more sensitive than previously thought. Without rapid, deep emissions cuts – over 50% by 2030 – overshooting 1.5°C becomes ever more likely, with severe consequences for people and ecosystems," said Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics.

Slight improvement in current policy pathway

CAT’s report analyses temperature rise scenarios based on current policies, as well as pledges and targets. It finds that warming under governments' policies and climate action has seen a small 0.1˚C drop, from 2.7°C to 2.6°C, but believes this is largely due to a methodological update to better reflect China’s emissions pathways to 2100.

At the same time, its ‘pledges and targets’ scenario, which includes 2030 and 2035 NDCs and net zero targets submitted under the Paris Agreement, has slightly worsened, from 2.1°C to 2.2°C, which the organisation says reflects the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, effectively invalidating all of its targets.

"The consequences of delay go beyond lost time: instead of building momentum, it fuels doubt and erodes trust in the process. With many governments yet to submit their 2035 NDCs, policymakers and observers are entering COP30 with an incomplete picture of national commitments and the overall level of ambition – making it difficult to assess global progress and hold governments accountable," added Ana Missirliu, of CAT partner organisation NewClimate Institute.

Even ‘optimistic scenario’ remains above Paris Agreement target

CAT also runs an optimistic scenario which assumes that announced targets will all be fully implemented – but even there, the warming projection remains at 1.9°C, well above the Paris Agreement goal of 1.5°C. This, according to the tracker, is a result of ongoing fossil fuel-intensive activities and added infrastructure allowed by governments: greenhouse gas emissions have remained the same (or even increased slightly) since 2020.

“While not at the pace needed, our analysis shows that the Paris Agreement works,” said Niklas Höhne of NewClimate Institute. “Back in 2015, our current policies scenario led to 3.6°C of warming by 2100. Today, ten years later, our latest projections show that this has been reduced by roughly 1°C to around 2.6˚C. The Paris Agreement has rewritten the rules of global climate action – sparking investment, innovation, and reforms that would simply not have happened without it.”

“But governments need to speed up the pace now. Although emissions have risen, the exponential pace of the renewable energy expansion allows us to now reduce emissions much faster than previously thought. Governments can strengthen or overachieve 2030 targets, implement robust policies, and ensure transparency and accountability to deliver on the Paris Agreement promise and safeguard a sustainable future," he added.