Apparel sector emissions up 7.5%, driven by ultra-fast fashion

Despite progress around recycled materials and sustainable manufacturing, the apparel sector’s emissions rose 7.5% in 2023, driven by an increase in production and the popularity of ultra-fast fashion brands like SHEIN.

A new report by the Apparel Impact Institute (Aii) estimates that across its entire supply chain, the apparel industry emitted 944.24 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2023 – 1.78% of the world’s overall carbon footprint.

This is an increase of 7.5% from 2022 – the first real increase since 2019, after four years of stagnation or small declines. “Given the imperative to reduce the apparel sector’s GHG emissions, an increase of 7.5% is an unwelcome development, even after several years of flat to slightly declining emissions,” the report notes.

According to Aii, the growth in emissions can be attributed to an increase in fiber consumption, primarily polyester, coinciding with the rise of ultra-fast fashion brands. The institute shares the example of SHEIN, whose revenue is estimated to have grown from less than US$1 billion in 2016 to over US$30 billion in 2023 – and another recent report warned that SHEIN’s emissions have risen 170% in the last two years.

The popularity of the ultra-fast fashion model helps to explain why the sector’s carbon footprint is growing despite significant progress from established fast fashion brands such as H&M, Puma or Lululemon.

Read also: From big promises to disillusion – taking stock of fashion's sustainable transformation

Value chain emissions breakdown

Looking at where emissions occur throughout fashion’s value chain, Aii estimates that most of the footprint (55%) comes from the production of materials that go directly into finished production assembly. This is followed by raw materials extraction (22%), raw materials processing (15%) and finished production assembly (8%).

This breakdown hasn’t changed significantly since 2022. Assuming business-as-usual growth for the sector, emissions are projected to be 1.243 gigatonnes in 2030 – nearly three times the 0.489 gigatonnes the sector should be emitting by the end of the decade to remain on a 1.5ºC pathway.

Sustainable materials and business model hurdles

Many apparel manufacturers are making efforts to replace virgin materials with recycled sources, particularly polyester – and some are having tremendous success: in 2024, nearly all the polyester used by adidas and H&M was recycled, while Lululemon hit 61% recycled polyester in 2023, up from 36% in 2020.

Still, the proportion of recycled polyester used by the industry is in decline: from 14.8% in 2021, it went down to 12.5% in 2023 as the production of virgin polyester increased.

“Current options for sustainable materials, such as recycled polyester, cost more than their virgin counterparts. In the case of polyester and other synthetics, the declining price of oil and gas over the last several years has made recycled alternatives more costly on a relative basis,” the report warns.

In addition, circular business models such as rental, resale, and repair still remain “an insignificant portion of the industry” due to logistics, consumer behaviour and cost challenges, limiting their potential to reduce new garment production.