Climate TRACE data shows global emissions are still rising (slightly) in 2025

Emissions in the first half of 2025 were 0.13% higher than in the first half of 2024, according to data shared by Climate TRACE.

The world emitted 30.99 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent between January and June 2025, and 5.12 billion tonnes in June alone – a 0.29% increase compared to the same month last year. Methane emissions are also rising at 34.82 million tonnes in June, up 0.49% year on year.

According to Climate TRACE – a platform spearheaded by Al Gore that provides monthly satellite and AI-powered global emissions data – the sector driving the most growth in emissions in the first half of the year was fossil fuel operations with an increase of 77.65 million tonnes of CO2e (up 1.5%). The US alone accounted for more than half of that sector increase. 

Manufacturing emissions also rose slightly, led by increases in India, Vietnam, Indonesia and Brazil.

Power sector emissions may have peaked

At the same time, global power sector emissions fell by 0.8% or 60.27 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent – the biggest decline across all sectors for that period. The decrease was driven almost entirely by China and India, where power emissions were 1.7% lower and 0.8% lower than in the first half of 2024, respectively. 

Several think tanks have predicted that emissions from power generation may have already peaked as renewable energy deployment continues to accelerate.

China, Mexico and Australia start to reduce carbon footprint

China, Mexico and Australia all saw modest decreases in emissions in the first half of this year: China’s emissions went down by 45.37 million tonnes of CO2e, or 0.51% year on year, Mexico by 7.78 million tonnes of CO2e or 1.71%, and Australia by 6.56 million tonnes of CO2e or 1.51%.

But these declines were offset by increases in emissions for some of the world’s major emitters. In the US, emissions increased by 1.43% (48.57 million tonnes). Brazil saw emissions rise by 9.84 million tonnes, or 1.24%, and India’s carbon footprint grew by 4.44 million tonnes of CO2e (0.21%).

Even the EU saw its emissions increase by 0.15% or 2.90 million tonnes in the first half of this year.