COP30 tensions escalate as latest draft removes all mentions of fossil fuels roadmap

The latest draft of the ‘Mutirão Decision’ – the primary document to come out of this year’s COP – has removed all mentions of a fossil fuels phase-out, despite the presidency’s stated intention to adopt a roadmap.

The roadmap to phase out fossil fuels at a global level is one of the most hotly debated issues at this year’s COP, with 83 countries – including several EU countries, but not the bloc itself – forming an unprecedented coalition to push for the measure.

‘Deep concern’ over lack of fossil fuel phase-out roadmap

Yesterday, scientists wrote an open letter to the Brazilian COP30 presidency calling for a “real workplan” to set the world on a timebound trajectory to phase out fossil fuels by 2045 at the latest. 

“This means globally no new fossil fuel investments, removing all subsidies from fossil fuels and a global plan on how to phase in renewable and low-carbon energy sources in a just way, and phase out fossil fuels quickly,” they said.

But today, the proposed roadmap – already considered insufficient – has been entirely dropped by COP30 negotiators. In addition, the new draft does not include options to be further discussed, suggesting that a quick resolution is being pursued as the conference enters its last official day.

However, observers now largely expect the talks to go into overtime as at least 25 countries – including France, Ireland and the UK – have vowed to block any agreement “that does not include a roadmap for implementing a just, orderly, and equitable transition away from fossil fuels”.

“The legacy of the Presidency in making COP30 a milestone moment will depend on the quality – rather than the speed – of the outcome,” they added.

Businesses call for ‘robust, credible roadmap’

Earlier this week, more than 130 organizations, including leading businesses, also wrote a letter to COP30 negotiators urging them to start developing a roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels, as agreed under the first Global Stocktake at COP28 in Dubai.  

The letter, signed by the likes of ACCIONA, Buro Happold, EDF, Fortescue, H&M Group, Ingka Group, Fortescue, Natura, Unilever and Volvo Cars, as well as business groups representing more than 100,000 companies, they wrote: “A robust, credible roadmap would help countries and businesses plan the shift to clean energy, strengthen energy security and reduce costs for consumers.  Anchoring the roadmap in real-world momentum toward clean energy and electrification would provide much-needed clarity for investment and national implementation.”

For the World Resources Institute, the roadmap may still emerge from the current text. David Waskow, Director of WRI’s International Climate Initiative, commented: “What is most noteworthy is that there are these discussions about fossil fuels. I think parties, wherever they stand on it, are understanding that this is core to where we head on on climate change, that you can't address what's happening with climate change and where we need to go without addressing fossil fuels and the role that they play, a very central role, the fundamental role. That is really important to bear in mind, regardless of exactly the text that lands at the end of the day.”

He believes the transition away from fossil fuels could end up being included in a paragraph on the Belém mission to 1.5°C, which remains to be clearly defined. 

“This is a text that pushes where the presidency thinks it can go, but I think they also recognise that there will be reactions to this text, and that there will have to be movement based on those reactions,” he added, noting that Brazilian President Lula's statements about a fossil transition roadmap will very much weigh in the balance.