Fossil fuel production plans widely inconsistent with Paris Agreement

Governments around the world are planning to produce more than twice the amount of fossil fuels by 2030 that would be consistent with the Paris Agreement goal to limit global warming to 1.5°C.

According to the 2025 Production Gap report produced by Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), Climate Analytics, and International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), in 2030 the world is set to still produce 120% more fossil fuels than acceptable for a 1.5°C pathway, and 77% more than would be consistent with 2°C.

The report also shows that the fossil fuel production gap is growing: in 2023, it stood 110% above the 1.5°C warming pathway and 69% more than the 2°C pathway. This is because governments are now planning even higher levels of coal production to 2035 and gas production to 2050, despite a decline in planned oil production.

“The increase in fossil fuel expansion plans over the last two years is alarming. While many governments see renewables as key to their energy security, others are betting against the clean energy transition. To avert the worst climate impacts with minimal economic disruption, governments need to commit to no new fossil fuels and back the clean industries of the future,” said Olivier Bois von Kursk, report co-author and Policy Advisor at the International Institute for Sustainable Development.

Lack of progress means steeper fossil fuels reductions necessary

Despite their commitment to ‘transition away from fossil fuels’, signed at COP28 in Dubai, the 20 major fossil-fuel-producing countries responsible for about 80% of global fossil fuel production (Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, Germany, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Mexico, Nigeria, Norway, Qatar, the Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, and the United States) have done little to reduce their dependence on fossil energy since then. 

Of the 20 countries, 17 still plan to increase production of at least one fossil fuel until 2030, and 11 now expect higher production of at least one fossil fuel in 2030 than they had planned in 2023. Only 6 of the 20 countries are now developing domestic fossil fuel production aligned with national and global net zero targets, though this is up from four in 2023, the report shows.

“Ten years after Paris, renewables are way out in front of the pack. Instead of getting in the race, governments are blundering backwards towards our fossil past. While it’s frustrating seeing public money squandered on what will inevitably become stranded assets, it’s intolerably unjust to think about the human and environmental costs of these fossil expansion plans, especially for the most vulnerable,” added Neil Grant, report co-author and Senior Expert at Climate Analytics.