Global EV sales to reach 25% market share this year: IEA

One in four cars sold globally this year will be electric, according to a new IEA report highlighting robust growth in the EV market.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a 40% market share for EVs by 2030, as electric cars become increasingly affordable. 

This year, global EV sales are on track to surpass 20 million – a quarter of overall car sales, according to the IEA’s Global EV Outlook. This is despite economic headwinds and policy uncertainty that have put pressure on the auto sector.

In 2024, EV sales already exceeded 17 million globally – more than 20% of the market for the first time, in line with the IEA’s previous projections. And in the first three months of 2025, electric car sales were up 35% year-on-year. 

Car manufacturers have argued that customer demand for EVs is expected to be too low for them to meet the EU’s CO2 reduction targets – leading regulators to make the rules more flexible for the coming three years. But think tank Transport & Environment believes the added flexibility is unnecessary given the recent surge in EV sales. 

Read also: EVs main driver of Volvo Cars' record 2024 sales

New records in all major markets

According to the IEA, all major markets saw new records in recent months. China remains the global market leader, with EVs accounting for almost half of all car sales last year (more than 11 million). 

In the US, electric car sales grew by about 10% year-on-year, reaching more than one in ten cars sold, while European EV sales stagnated at around 20% of the market as subsidies and other supportive policies waned.

Emerging markets in Asia and Latin America have also become “new centres of growth”, says the IEA with total EV sales across these regions surging by more than 60% in 2024.

“Our data shows that, despite significant uncertainties, electric cars remain on a strong growth trajectory globally. Sales continue to set new records, with major implications for the international auto industry,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. “This year, we expect more than one in four cars sold worldwide to be electric, with growth accelerating in many emerging economies. By the end of this decade, it is set to be more than two in five cars as EVs become increasingly affordable.”

Decreasing prices make up for economic and political uncertainty

Recent economic uncertainty and disruptive trade and industrial policies could potentially affect this outlook, but the decreasing price of EVs is likely to continue to support market growth.

The average price of a battery car fell everywhere around the world last year amid growing competition and declining battery costs. While the price gap with conventional vehicles remains in most regions (the average battery-electric car is 20% higher than that of its conventional counterpart in Germany, and 30% higher in the United States), two-thirds of electric cars sold in China in 2024 were actually priced lower than their ICE equivalents – even without incentives.

Additionally, EVs are consistently cheaper to operate due to reduced fuel and maintenance expenses, based on current energy market prices. According to the IEA, even if oil prices were to fall as low as US$40 per barrel, running an electric car in Europe via home charging would still cost about half as much as running a conventional car at today’s residential electricity prices.

Even heavy-duty electric vehicles are becoming cheaper, leading to an 80% increase in electric truck sales last year to around 2% of all truck sales worldwide. This growth is largely driven by China, where improved cost competitiveness led to a doubling of sales.