Global temperatures increasingly likely to rise beyond 1.5ºC

A new report by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) gives global temperatures a 70% chance of rising by more than 1.5ºC over the 2025-2029 period.

The likelihood of more than 1.5ºC warming has more than doubled over the last two years: WMO placed it at 32% for the 2023-2027 period, and 47% for the 2024-2028 period.

Overall, average global temperatures for each year until 2029 are predicted to be between 1.2°C and 1.9°C higher than the average over the years 1850-1900, with an 80% chance of at least one year being warmer than the warmest year on record (2024). There is also an 86% chance that at least one year will be more than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level.

“We have just experienced the ten warmest years on record. Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years, and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet,” said WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett.

“Continued climate monitoring and prediction is essential to provide decision-makers with science-based tools and information to help us adapt,” she added.

Climate risk on the rise

The report, produced by the UK’s Met Office as the WMO Lead Centre for Annual to Decadal Climate Prediction, warns that every additional fraction of a degree of warming drives more harmful heatwaves, extreme rainfall events, intense droughts, melting of ice sheets, sea ice, and glaciers, heating of the ocean, and rising sea levels.

Arctic regions are expected to warm at three and a half times the global average over the next five years, that is 2.4ºC above average temperatures between 1991 and 2020. This will lead to further reductions in sea ice concentration.

In addition, Northern Europe, Alaska, Siberia and the Sahel regions are expected to experience wetter than average weather in the coming years, while the Amazon could become drier. Wetter conditions in South Asia are likely to continue over the next five years. This year, the Indian monsoon season started eight days early – the earliest in 16 years.

20-year warming average estimated at 1.44ºC

Since the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines future global warming levels in terms of a 20-year mean, the report also estimates the 20-year average temperature rise for the years 2015 to 2034 at 1.44ºC, with 90% confidence.

The goal of the Paris Agreement is to limit global warming to 1.5ºC or well below 2.0ºC by 2100.

“Temporary exceedances of such levels are expected to occur with increasing frequency as the underlying rise in global temperature approaches the level,” WMO warns.