Historic motion paves way for fossil fuel phase-out; AI enables oil production ramp-up

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) has adopted a historic motion to examine and address fossil fuel production as the root cause of nature degradation – the same week as a Wood Mackenzie report shows AI can unlock an extra 1 trillion barrels of oil.

The two pieces of news reflect the contradictions many governments are finding themselves in – both recognising the responsibility fossil fuels have in our planet’s multi-crisis and continuing to support them, including through subsidies. They are also a reminder that while AI can support the energy transition, it is also being deployed to enhance oil and gas extraction – a concern raised through a campaign by former Microsoft employees.

IUCN Motion 42: Strongest multilateral language on fossil fuels

During the IUCN World Conservation Congress this week, members (over 1,400 NGO, state and subnational government organisations from more than 160 countries) adopted the most strongly worded motion to date on fossil fuels and nature. 

Acknowledging the urgent gap in international governance of fossil fuel production, Motion 42 encourages states to explore a variety of instruments, including explicitly naming a potential Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty to phase out coal, oil, and gas, stop new extraction, and ensure a just transition for workers and communities.

Harjeet Singh, Strategic Advisor of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, commented: “The IUCN has finally named a root cause of the climate and biodiversity crises: fossil fuels. By adopting motions that call for a serious analysis of the gaps in current international agreements, the IUCN has acknowledged what many governments still refuse to confront – there is no existing global plan to phase out coal, oil, and gas. 

“That governance gap is exactly why the Fossil Fuel Treaty is what we need to provide a coherent international framework for an equitable phaseout and a just transition. Coming in the wake of the ICJ advisory opinion, this decision adds momentum to growing global demands for climate justice and puts pressure on governments to act ahead of COP30.”

Wood Mackenzie: AI will help us increase oil supply

But the historic move contrasts with a report published this week by Wood Mackenzie, which suggests that AI should be used to meet “stronger-for-longer” oil demand. The consultancy forecasts that annual consumption won’t peak until the early to mid-2030s, and cumulative demand will be almost 1,000 billion barrels through 2050.

Its modelling reveals how the oil industry could unlock “hundreds of billions of barrels of additional supply from the fields it already operates” thanks to AI. "The results of our new AI-powered analysis, therefore, are encouraging. Better recovery from existing fields could yield an additional 470 billion to over 1,000 billion barrels of oil," Woodmac adds.

In response, Holly Alpine, one of the former Microsoft employees who raised the alarm on the use of AI to increase oil production, said: “Our math shows that could be 400 gigatonnes of emissions – using up the entire remaining 1.5 °C carbon budget, erasing decades of global climate progress, and gravely threatening a livable future on this planet. Is there any other issue on Earth that comes anywhere close to that scale of impact?

“In plain language: fossil fuels were becoming too difficult and expensive to produce – until AI came along to make them profitable again. That isn’t ‘innovation’ – it’s acceleration toward climate collapse.”