What to expect at COP30 – and why many CSOs are sitting this one out

After several disappointing climate conferences, expectations for this year’s COP30 are particularly high – with countries due to present renewed national climate plans for the next 10 years. So what’s at stake in Belém, and why are many Chief Sustainability Officers choosing to watch it from afar?

COP30 is widely expected to be a consequential climate summit. This is partly because of its timing – 10 years after the signing of the Paris Agreement and five years away from the first significant deadline for climate targets, with new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) due in 2025. It is also because of its location, in the heart of the Brazilian Amazon rainforest, symbolising greater Indigenous participation, growing Global South cooperation and the importance of biodiversity preservation to tackle climate change.

But it also comes at a time of weakened – or in the case of the US, abandoned – political climate leadership and renewed investment in fossil fuels, including by host country Brazil, whose President Lula has been supporting new oil drilling in the Amazon.

This context, along with classic COP controversies around the environmental and social impacts of building the infrastructure needed to accommodate an expected 60,000 to 75,000 attendees, as well as the flights booked to attend it, is leading many already disillusioned sustainability professionals not to attend the world’s largest climate event this year.

Whether or not you are going, here is what to expect at this year’s flagship climate conference.

Next wave of national climate commitments

The official deadline to submit new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) was February 2025 – but as of July 31, only 25 countries have made their submission. Because of this delay, the UN has extended the deadline to September 2025, but one thing is clear: states are expected to publish their 2035 climate plan before attending COP30.

According to Climate Action Tracker, only one climate target submitted so far is compatible with a 1.5ºC trajectory: the UK’s 81% GHG reduction goal. With many scientists warning that 1.5ºC is now already out of reach, the conversation at COP30 could revolve around adjusting national climate action plans to a warmer reality.

Climate adaptation in the spotlight

Partly because initial plans to curb global warming have been too slow to take shape – with extreme weather events affecting lives and economies across the world – global leaders are now turning their attention to climate adaptation measures. 

A large part of the discussion around adaptation will revolve around finance with the Baku-Belém roadmap signed at COP29 aiming to scale up adaptation finance to developing countries to the level they need, ie. US$1.3 trillion by 2035. Last year’s UN climate summit ended with a “disappointing” new collective quantified goal for climate finance (NCQG) of US$300 billion per year to be channeled from the Global North to the Global South until 2035 – and negotiations around adaptation finance are likely to remain tense this year.

Forests and agriculture

Food gained prominence in the climate conversation at COP28, with the signing of the Emirates Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems, and Climate Action. With this, more than 134 countries committed to integrating food and agriculture into their next round of NDCs – the ones due by COP30.

Making the global food system more sustainable and climate-resilient is becoming an urgent matter, with several studies already showing the financial and food security impacts of a changing climate. Food companies are making large investments in regenerative agriculture, as well as committing to ending deforestation in their supply chains – though the timing of this commitment varies, with some asking the EU to further delay its Deforestation Regulation.  

Brazil is at the heart of the food and deforestation conversation: 6,288 km² of Amazon rainforest and 8,174 km² of Cerrado were cleared in 2024 alone – much of it to make way for new soy and cattle production. President Lula famously proposed the creation of a ‘Tropical Forest Forever’ fund of US$250 billion per year to finance forest conservation at COP28.

Now, the country is likely to use its influence as COP30 host to garner more support and financial commitments for the fund.

Article 6 carbon market

Finally, more progress is expected around the workings of a global carbon market governed by Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, after the rules were finalised at COP29. Article 6 is expected to contribute half of global demand for carbon credits by 2035, but concerns remain around credit quality and policy uncertainty.

With the EU including international carbon credits in its 2040 climate target, global leaders have a lot to gain from strengthening Article 6 integrity mechanisms at COP30.