‘Nowhere near on track’: New NDCs leave climate experts underwhelmed

At least 13 countries submitted their 2035 national climate targets (NDCs) this week, but experts warn that these remain insufficient to put us back on track to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.

This week’s UN General Assembly in New York was seen as the last chance for countries to submit their new nationally determined contributions (NDCs) before international discussions at COP30 in November. 

After Australia announced its plan to cut emissions by 62-70% below 2005 levels, and the EU published a statement of intent with an indicative 66.25% to 72.5% target range last week, Tunisia, Jordan, Nigeria, Eswatini, Jamaica, Tonga, Chile, Mongolia, Vanuatu, Micronesia, Pakistan, Liberia and China all published their NDCs between September 22 and 25.

China aiming for 7-10% cut from ‘peak levels’

China – the world’s largest emitter with nearly 16 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2023 – announced its intention to cut emissions by between 7% and 10% compared to an unspecified ‘peak’ level by 2035. The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) previously estimated that a 30% reduction by 2035 was necessary to keep the Paris Agreement on track.

Underwhelming ambition from the world’s biggest polluter and climate change denial statements made by the second-largest emitter, the US, at the UN General Assembly, do not bode well for the next decade.

“Countries’ last round of NDCs put the world on track for up to 2.8°C of warming, already exposing billions of people to more frequent and intense heatwaves, wildfires, storms and floods. By 2035, the world needs to cut 31.2 gigatons of emissions to stay on track for 1.5°C, or 20.2 Gt for 2°C. The NDCs and announcements so far would reduce that by just 2 gigatons — only 6% of what’s needed for 1.5°C and 10% for 2°C,” estimates Ani Dasgupta, President and CEO of the World Resources Institute (WRI).

He added: “We cannot sugarcoat it: these new climate plans do not put us anywhere near on track for a safe future. The lack of ambition so far from most major emitters, barring a few, underscores the immense political challenge countries face in transforming their entire economy. Yet vulnerable countries continue to step up with bold climate leadership.” 

Cities and companies’ climate commitments continue to ‘rise steadily’

At the same time, the latest Net Zero Tracker published this week (September 23) suggests that the global ambition to cut emissions and reach net zero remains intact, with 77% of global GDP now covered by national net zero commitments – 83% when counting the 19 US states with net zero targets.

At the corporate level, 70% of the revenue in the Forbes Global 2000 list is covered by listed companies’ net zero targets, which are increasing in China, India, Japan and the US. US companies with net zero targets jumped 9% in one year despite pushback from the Trump administration. These firms now represent US$12 trillion in global annual revenue and 64% of the revenue of assessed US companies.

“Talk of a ‘net zero recession’ is overblown. Backtracking is confined to fossil fuels and their financiers, while more companies are moving from box-ticking to real emission cuts – a long-overdue reset,” said John Lang, Lead, Net Zero Tracker. However, just 7% of company net zero targets are considered high integrity (compared to 5% last year).