UK food prices could rise by 34% due to climate change

Under a high-emissions scenario, food prices could increase by 34% by 2050 in the UK, according to an analysis of how climate-related shocks are set to affect the global food supply.

The report, by the Autonomy Institute, warns that the UK is highly dependent on food imports which make up 50% of its supply. This makes the country particularly vulnerable to forecast climate shocks in the likes of Spain, France and Brazil.

With domestic agriculture facing similar risks – wheat, barley and oilseed rape are all being affected by extreme weather and farmers are reporting lost yields and income due to these events – the UK could face a high level of climate-related inflation or ‘climateflation’ by mid-century.

The Autonomy Institute warns that its analysis only takes into account the impacts of heatwaves and droughts – suggesting that the inflation forecast is likely to be even higher when considering other extreme weather events, like floods and storms.

Social impact of rising food prices

Lower-income households are disproportionately affected by food inflation, and could lose £917 to £1,247 per year by 2050 due to UK heatwaves – increasing food insecurity.

Regionally, the East of England, North West, and South West are projected to face the highest levels of heatwave-induced poverty, with children and working-age adults as the most vulnerable demographic groups.

“Our scenarios estimate that heatwave-induced inflation will put an additional 824,285 people into poverty if no action is taken by 2050,” the Institute warns.

Policy recommendations: Basic baskets and sustainable agriculture investments

Among its recommendations to absorb climate-driven food price shocks, The Autonomy Institute suggests that the UK government should provide a basket of basic essentials to every household in the UK free of charge, ensuring that no one in the country goes hungry because of climate change.

Secondly, the UK could develop a ‘buffer stock system’ as well as temporary price caps on essential foods to stabilise food prices and ensure availability during supply chain disruptions and inflationary periods. It could also create a publicly-funded service distributing essential food items to the most vulnerable groups, presented as public diners.

Finally, the Institute recommends making long-term public investments in regenerative and agroecological farming practices, which are considered “crucial to build resilience in the domestic food system and reduce reliance on imports”.