COP30 falls short on fossil fuels but delivers on forests and adaptation finance

COP30 ended on Saturday (November 22) with an agreement to triple adaptation finance, a blended finance mechanism to protect the world’s forests – and intense divisions over the phase-out of fossil fuels.

Tensions had escalated on Friday (November 21) after the COP30 Presidency removed all references to fossil fuels in a new draft of the so-called Mutirao Decision – the main document on which countries had to agree this year. Several countries vowed not to adopt a plan that did not include a fossil fuels roadmap, but talks this year did not have the luxury of overtime, with many delegations having to stay on cruise ships due to a lack of accommodation options, and a clear-cut date for the vessels’ departure on November 22.

In the end, the Mutirao Decision was adopted without the words ‘fossil fuels’ – but Brazilian President Lula launched the much-debated roadmap on the sidelines of UN climate negotiations, with support from Colombia and 90 other countries.

Fossil fuels roadmap negotiations break down – but 90 countries will continue the work

“COP30 in Belém didn’t deliver the bold fossil fuel phaseout roadmap that is needed, but it has nudged the system forward: more scrutiny of fossil fuel producers and more money for forests and adaptation, and a new, rising emphasis on trade and implementation. 

“The traditional COP model is under serious strain in a fractured, multipolar world, particularly from countries prepared to sacrifice the well-being of the world for fossil fuel interests. It is significant that the Brazilian presidency will move forward on developing a roadmap for a transition away from fossil fuels, and that more than 90 countries support this,” commented Climate Analytics CEO Bill Hare.

Overall, observers appreciated the world’s ability to come to an agreement despite the political divisions plaguing this year's conference – but many were disappointed by the lack of consensus on how to proceed around fossil fuels.

Ani Dasgupta, President and CEO of the World Resources Institute (WRI), noted: “Many will leave Belém disappointed that negotiators couldn't agree to develop a roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels. More than 80 countries stood their ground for a fair and equitable shift off fossil fuels, but intense lobbying from a few petrostates weakened the deal.  

“At the last minute, negotiators incorporated a reference to a previous agreement on accelerating the climate transition in multiple sectors, and the Brazilian Presidency announced it would create fossil fuel and deforestation roadmaps outside of the formal negotiations. Now it’s up to President Lula and the Brazilian COP presidency to turn that into a strong and inclusive global plan to transition away from fossil fuels.”

Adaptation finance goal tripled – but Baku to Belém roadmap moved to 2035

Countries also agreed to triple adaptation finance – funds provided by rich countries to those most vulnerable to climate change – which was broadly seen as a positive development, despite the lack of a specific amount and a long timeline to 2035. 

“Limited progress was made on adaptation with an indicator framework that lacks the support of most countries and with a vague tripling goal to be achieved in ten years, at a time when the gap in adaptation finance is exceedingly high, and scaled up adaptation action is sorely needed with hard limits to adaptation on the horizon,” warned Hare.

The conference is now finalising a set of 59 “voluntary, non-prescriptive indicators” spinning all sectors and integrating finance, technology, and capacity-building to track progress under the Global Goal on Adaptation. 

Another financial goal – to mobilise US$1.3 trillion annually for climate action as part of the ‘Baku to Belem Roadmap’ – was pushed by five years to 2035, but progress was achieved on how exactly this goal will be met.

“The Baku to Belem Roadmap to US$1.3 trillion marked a step change by outlining practical steps to ensure different sources of finance are working together to drive investment at scale. Announcements throughout the week, from risk guarantees to country platforms, showed that these ideas are already moving from concept to implementation,” added Dasgupta.

Mixed reactions to forest progress

With this year’s COP held on the edge of the Amazon rainforest, many expected the conference to deliver strong forest commitments – but the final text adopted does not include a goal to end deforestation on a global scale.

However, the launch of the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF) early in the event was hailed as a practical mechanism to fund forest protection – though experts warned that more financial commitments are necessary to unlock its full potential.

The conference also ended with the approval of a just transition mechanism that puts people and equity at the center of the fight against climate change, as well as a Gender Action Plan and pledges to promote the leadership of Indigenous, Afro-descendant, and rural women for climate action.

“COP30 succeeded in putting people at the center of climate action. Indigenous Peoples participated in record numbers and made their voices heard. The Global Ethical Stocktake affirmed that fairness, inclusion, and responsibility must guide every decision. New commitments for Indigenous Peoples’ and communities’ land rights and finance offer a strong step forward, though far more is needed,” concluded Dasgupta at WRI.