Global Methane Pledge remains off track despite improvements

The forecast for 2030 methane emissions is now lower than before thanks to national policies, sector regulations and market shifts – but emissions are still rising too much to meet the Global Methane Pledge.

The latest Global Methane Status Report, launched by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) and the Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC) this week at COP30, projects that methane emissions will increase by 5% between 2020 and 2030 – instead of decreasing by 30% as per the Global Methane Pledge.

Still, this increase is now 40% lower than previous forecasts, largely thanks to national policies implemented as a result of the pledge. 

Now, if countries were to fully implement methane reduction measures in their national climate targets (NDCs) and methane action plans, emissions could drop by up to 8% below 2020 levels – the largest and most sustained decline since the Industrial Revolution (but still short of the 30% target).

Julie Dabrusin, Canada’s Minister of Environment and Climate Change and Co-Convener of the Global Methane Pledge, said: “This report is a crucial assessment of our progress and a key indicator of the work that’s required to meet the Global Methane Pledge goal. In just four years, we have made improvements, but we must continue to drive faster, deeper methane cuts. Every tonne reduced brings us closer to cleaner air, more resilient communities, and a thriving global economy. It is important for all countries that have agreed to the Global Methane Pledge to continue to work closely together to drive momentum on methane mitigation, turning ambition into tangible benefits for the planet.”

Economic benefits of methane abatement

A recent economic assessment of global methane abatement has found that meeting the Global Methane Pledge would result in US$1 trillion in annual savings – and the UNEP report also highlights the cost-effectiveness of reducing methane emissions.

According to the analysis, over 80% of 2030 emissions reduction potential can be achieved at low cost, with measures in the energy sector offering 72% of the overall mitigation potential, followed by waste (18%) and agriculture (10%).

Proven measures include leak detection and repair programmes, plugging of abandoned wells in the oil and gas sector, water management measures for rice cultivation, or source separation and treatment of organic waste in the agriculture and waste sector. 

Inger Andersen, Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations and Executive Director of UNEP, added: “Reducing methane emissions is one of the most immediate and effective steps we can take to slow the climate crisis while protecting human health. Reducing methane also reduces crop losses, essential for both agriculture productivity and food security. UNEP is committed to helping countries turn ambition into action to ensure the solutions in this report deliver real benefits for people and the planet.”

The report estimates that full implementation of technically feasible reductions globally could prevent over 180,000 premature deaths and 19 million tonnes of crop losses each year by 2030. All fossil fuel mitigation could be deployed at just 2% of the sector’s 2023 income.