High-integrity carbon credits are now sold at an average 65% price premium

Voluntary carbon credits considered ‘high integrity’ are now sold at an average 65% price premium compared to low-quality credits, according to market data from the first half of 2025.

The data, shared by carbon market analysis firms Calyx Global and ClearBlue Markets, suggests “a promising direction for the market” as integrity initiatives and labelling such as the Core Carbon Principles (CCP) begin to bear fruit.

The average price of ‘Tier 1’ carbon credits by the end of June was close to US$8 per tonne – compared to just over US$4 for low-quality ‘Tier 3’ credits. 

“While sentiment toward Tier 1 credits began to shift in early 2024, this trend has strengthened, with the T1 price premium averaging 65% above Tier 3 credits by the end of Q2 2025. Tier 2 credits continued to price near the midpoint between T1 and T3, indicating that the market may be increasingly pricing credits in alignment with their greenhouse gas integrity risk,” the report notes.

CCP approvals beginning to be felt in the market

One of the carbon market’s top integrity initiatives to date has been the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (ICVCM) integrity labelling, the Core Carbon Principles (CCP). After months of methodology assessments, the ICVCM has approved a number of different types of projects for this label, including lower-emissions cookstoves and certain types of forest projects.

H1 2025 analysis shows that recent CCP approvals have bolstered market sentiment for select afforestation and reforestation projects and Landfill Gas and Ozone-Depleting Substances projects, which contributed to stronger Tier 1 pricing.

In contrast, renewable energy projects – which have been excluded from the CCP scheme for their lack of additionality – continued to experience “consistent price pressure”, the report adds.

Market preference for high-quality nature-based credits

According to the analytics firms, nature-based solutions (NbS) projects “have consistently commanded significant price premiums in the VCM, driven by strong demand for removal-based credits, such as afforestation, reforestation, and revegetation ARR, and positive perceptions among market participants”. 

But data so far has struggled to capture pricing differences based on the variability in NbS credit quality: many forest projects developed under the REDD+ methodology, for instance, have come under fire for overestimating their carbon absorption capacity in recent years.

By combining quality tiers and project categories, the H1 report provides a clearer picture: Tier 1 nature-based credits have traded at a substantial premium, reaching prices of over US$30 per tonne from January 2025.

At the same time, Tier 3 NbS credits have faced increasing price pressure, “driven largely by the depressed value of many REDD credits”, the firms explain. “This suggests a growing alignment between market pricing and underlying credit quality.”